coalitions

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Overview

The package offers functions that calculate coalition probabilities in multi-party elections, based on a survey results:

Installation

# To install from CRAN use:
install.packages("coalitions")

# To install the most current version from GitHub use:
devtools::install_github("adibender/coalitions")

Usage

Detailed workflow is outlined in the workflow vignette.

A short overview is presented below.

Scrape surveys

The wrapper get_surveys() which takes no arguments, downloads all surveys currently available at wahlrecht.de and stores them in a nested tibble:

library(coalitions)
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
surveys <- get_surveys()
surveys
## # A tibble: 7 x 2
##   pollster   surveys
##   <chr>      <list>
## 1 allensbach <tibble [42 × 5]>
## 2 emnid      <tibble [226 × 5]>
## 3 forsa      <tibble [236 × 5]>
## 4 fgw        <tibble [84 × 5]>
## 5 gms        <tibble [96 × 5]>
## 6 infratest  <tibble [110 × 5]>
## 7 insa       <tibble [305 × 5]>

Each row represents a polling agency and each row in the surveys column again contains a nested tibble with survey results from different time-points:

surveys %>%
    filter(pollster == "allensbach") %>%
    unnest()
## # A tibble: 42 x 6
##    pollster   date       start      end        respondents survey
##    <chr>      <date>     <date>     <date>           <dbl> <list>
##  1 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  2 allensbach 2018-01-25 2018-01-05 2018-01-18        1221 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  3 allensbach 2017-12-21 2017-12-01 2017-12-14        1443 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  4 allensbach 2017-11-30 2017-11-22 2017-11-27        1299 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  5 allensbach 2017-10-25 2017-10-07 2017-10-19        1454 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  6 allensbach 2017-09-22 2017-09-13 2017-09-20        1074 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  7 allensbach 2017-09-19 2017-09-06 2017-09-14        1083 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  8 allensbach 2017-09-06 2017-08-22 2017-08-31        1043 <tibble [7 × 3…
##  9 allensbach 2017-08-22 2017-08-04 2017-08-17        1421 <tibble [7 × 3…
## 10 allensbach 2017-07-18 2017-07-01 2017-07-12        1403 <tibble [7 × 3…
## # ... with 32 more rows
survey <- surveys %>% unnest() %>% slice(1)
survey %>% unnest()
## # A tibble: 7 x 8
##   pollster   date       start      end        respondents party  percent
##   <chr>      <date>     <date>     <date>           <dbl> <chr>    <dbl>
## 1 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 cdu      32.0
## 2 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 spd      17.5
## 3 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 greens   12.0
## 4 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 fdp      11.0
## 5 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 left      9.50
## 6 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 afd      13.0
## 7 allensbach 2018-02-23 2018-02-02 2018-02-15        1271 others    5.00
## # ... with 1 more variable: votes <dbl>

Calculate coalition probabilities

For each survey (row) we can calculate the coalition probabilities

survey %>% get_probabilities(nsim=1e4) %>% unnest()
## # A tibble: 6 x 4
##   pollster   date       coalition       probability
##   <chr>      <date>     <chr>                 <dbl>
## 1 allensbach 2018-02-23 cdu                  0
## 2 allensbach 2018-02-23 cdu_fdp              0.0500
## 3 allensbach 2018-02-23 cdu_fdp_greens     100.0
## 4 allensbach 2018-02-23 spd                  0
## 5 allensbach 2018-02-23 left_spd             0
## 6 allensbach 2018-02-23 greens_left_spd      0