`phcfM`

is an R package for modelling anthropogenic deforestation. It was initially developed to obtain REDD+ baseline scenarios of deforestation for the *programme holistique de conservation des forêts à Madagascar* (from which the package is named after). It includes two main functions:

`demography()`

, to model the population growth with time in a hierarchical Bayesian framework using population census data and Gaussian linear mixed models.`deforestation()`

, to model the deforestation process in a hierarchical Bayesian framework using land-cover change data and Binomial logistic regression models with variable time-intervals between land-cover observations.

The last stable version of the `phcfM`

R package (`phcfM_1.2`

) is officially available for several operating systems (Unix, Windows and Mac OSX) on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

The source code and manual for the testing version (`phcfM_1.2-1`

) is available here:

- Package source: phcfM_1.2-1.tar.gz
- Reference manual: phcfM_1.2-1.pdf

A GRASS location (`phcfM_SM`

) and two mapsets with geographical data layers (`PERMANENT`

and `study_area_4`

) are available to illustrate the use of the `phcfM`

R package. Associated to the GRASS location, a directory (`./scripts`

) includes the data and the R/GRASS scripts used for the demographic and deforestation models.

- GRASS location: phcfM_SM.zip
- ./scripts: scripts.zip

The following scheme illustrates the structure of the `./scripts`

folder.

./scripts

|-- 0_demography_SAs.R

|-- 1_deforestation_dataset_SA4.R

|-- 2_deforestation_model_SA4.R

|-- 3_deforestation_forecast_PS4.R

|-- data

|-- |-- 0_data_demography_SAs.txt

|-- |-- 1_data_deforestation_SA4.txt

|-- fragindex

|-- |-- recl.txt

|-- |-- r.forestfrag

|-- outputs

|-- |-- demography

|-- |-- forecast

|-- |-- model

Four scripts are available: `0_demography_SAs.R`

is a R script to estimate the parameters of the demographic model using the function `demography()`

of the `phcfM`

R package, `1_deforestation_dataset_SA4.R`

is a R/GRASS script to prepare the data-set for the deforestation model from the geographic data layers of the `phcfM_SM`

GRASS location, `2_deforestation_model_SA4.R`

is a R script to estimate the parameters of the deforestation model using the function `deforestation()`

of the `phcfM`

R package and `3_deforestation_forecast_PS4.R`

is a R/GRASS script to forecast deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions.

The `./scripts/data`

folder includes the population census data file `0_data_demography_SAs.txt`

used for the demographic model. Running the `1_deforestation_dataset_SA4.R`

script generates the file `1_data_deforestation_SA4.txt`

(the data-set used for the deforestation model) in the `./scripts/data`

folder. The `./scripts/fragindex`

folder includes the GRASS function `r.forestfrag`

to compute the forest fragmentation index. The `./scripts/outputs`

folder includes the outputs for the demographic model, the deforestation model and the deforestation forecast.

**Vieilledent G., Grinand C., Vaudry R.** 2013. Forecasting deforestation and carbon emissions in tropical developing countries facing demographic expansion: a case study in Madagascar. *Ecology and Evolution*. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.550.

Ghislain Vieilledent

Cirad, UPR BSEF

Campus de Baillarguet

TA C-105/D

34398 Montpellier cedex 5

FRANCE

Skype: ghislain.vieilledent

Email: ghislain(dot)vieilledent(at)cirad(dot)fr

WWW: `http://ghislain.vieilledent.free.fr`