---
title: "Vignette: Robust Generalized Regression (GREG) and Ratio Prediction/ Estimation"
author: "Beat Hulliger and Tobias Schoch"
output:
html_document:
css: "fluent.css"
highlight: tango
vignette: >
%\VignetteIndexEntry{Robust Generalized Regression (GREG) and Ratio Estimation/ Prediction}
%\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
---
```{r setup, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
collapse = TRUE,
comment = "",
prompt = TRUE,
dpi = 36,
fig.align = "center"
)
```
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```
## Outline
The vignette covers robust generalized regression (GREG) prediction and robust
ratio prediction.
## 1 Preparations
First, we load the namespaces of the packages `robsurvey` and `survey` (and
attach them to the search path). In order to use the regression methods, the
`survey` package **must** be attached to the search path. In addition, we load
the dataset `MU284pps`.
```{r, eval=FALSE}
library("robsurvey", quietly = TRUE)
library("survey")
data("MU284pps")
```
```{r, echo = FALSE}
library(robsurvey, quietly = TRUE)
suppressPackageStartupMessages(library(survey))
```
**Notes.**
* The argument `quietly = TRUE` suppresses the start-up message in the call of
`library("robsurvey")`.
* Since **version 4.2**, the **survey** package allows the definition of
pre-calibrated weights (see argument `calibrate.formula` of the function
`svydesign()`). This vignette uses this functionality (in some places). If
you have installed an earlier version of the `survey` package, this vignette
will automatically fall back to calling `svydesign()` without the calibration
specification. See vignette [Pre-calibrated
weights](https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=survey/vignettes/precalibrated.pdf)
of the `survey` package to learn more.
```{r, echo = FALSE, results = "asis"}
survey_version <- packageVersion("survey")
if (survey_version < "4.2") {
cat(paste0(''))
}
```
The `MU284pps` dataset is random sample from the MU284 population of [Särndal
et al.](#biblio) (1992, Appendix B). The population includes measurements on
the 284 municipalities in Sweden in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It is
available in the `sampling` package; see [Tillé and Matei](#biblio) (2021). The
sample is a proportional-to-size sample (PPS) without replacement of size 50.
The sample has been selected by Brewer's method; see [Tillé](#biblio) (2006,
Chap. 7). The sample inclusion probabilities are proportional to the population
size in 1975 (variable `P75`). The sampling weight (inclusion probabilities)
are calibrated to the population size and the population total of P75.
The data frame `MU284pps` includes the following variables.
| | | |
| - | ---- | - | ---- |
*LABEL* | identifier variable | *P85* | 1985 population size (in $10^3$) |
*P75* | 1975 population size (in $10^3$) | *RMT85* | revenues from the 1985 municipal taxation (in $10^6$ kronor) |
*CS82* | number of Conservative seats in municipal council | *SS82* | number of Social-Democrat seats in municipal council (1982) |
*S82* | total number of seats in municipal council in 1982 | *ME84* | number of municipal employees in 1984 |
*REV84* | real estate values in 1984 (in $10^6$ kronor) | *CL* | cluster indicator |
*REG* | geographic region indicator | *weights* | sampling weights|
| *pi* | finite population correction | |
First, we define the sampling design
```{r, eval = FALSE}
dn <- svydesign(ids = ~LABEL, fpc = ~pi, data = MU284pps, pps = "brewer",
calibrate = ~1)
```
```{r, echo = FALSE}
dn <- if (packageVersion("survey") >= "4.2") {
svydesign(ids = ~LABEL, fpc = ~pi, data = MU284pps, pps = "brewer",
calibrate = ~1)
} else {
svydesign(ids = ~LABEL, fpc = ~pi, data = MU284pps, pps = "brewer")
}
```
with the option `pps = "Brewer"` and the specification that `fpc` is equal to
the first-order sample inclusion probabilities, `pi`.
The variable of interest is revenues from 1985 taxation (`RMT85`), and the goal
is to estimate the population revenues total (in million Swedish kronor). From
register data, the population size in 1985 (variable `P85`) is a know quantity;
it is 8 339 (in thousands). The subsequent graph shows a scatterplot of
`RMT85` vs. `P85` (the size of the circles is proportional to the sampling
weight).
```{r, out.width = "80%"}
svyplot(RMT85 ~ P85, dn, xlab = "P85", ylab = "RMT85", inches = 0.1)
```
## 2 Robust ratio prediction
We are interested in the ratio estimator of the 1985 revenues total. Consider
the following population model
$$
\begin{equation*}
\mathrm{RMT85}_i = \mathrm{P85}_i \cdot \theta + \sigma
\sqrt{\mathrm{P85}_i} E_i, \qquad i \in U,
\end{equation*}
$$
where the $E_i$ are independent and identically distributed random variables
with zero mean and unit variance. The parameters $\theta$ and $\sigma > 0$ are
unknown.
#### 2.1 Ratio predictor
Under the model, the least squares (LS) census estimator of $\theta$ is
$\theta_N = \sum_{i \in U} y_i / \sum_{i \in U} x_i$. The sample weighted LS
estimator is $\widehat{\theta}_n = \sum_{i \in s}w_i y_i / \sum_{i \in s} w_i
x_i$, where $w_i$ denotes the sampling weight. It is computed by
```{r}
rat <- svyratio_huber(~RMT85, ~P85, dn, k = Inf)
rat
```
Next, we predict the payroll total based on the estimated regression parameter
$\widehat{\theta}_n$ (i.e., object `rat`) and the known population size in 1985
(`total = 8339`).
```{r}
tot <- svytotal_ratio(rat, total = 8339)
tot
```
The estimated mean square error of the ratio predictor is
```{r}
mse(tot) / 1e6
```
which is equal to the estimated variance because the ratio predictor of the
total is unbiased for the population total. The estimated total, standard error
and variance covariance can be extracted by the functions `coef`, `SE()`, and
`vcov()`.
#### 2.2 Robust ratio predictor
A robust ratio predictor (with Huber $\psi$-function and robustness tuning
constant $k = 20$) can be computed by
```{r}
rat_rob <- svyratio_huber(~RMT85, ~P85, dn, k = 20)
tot_rob <- svytotal_ratio(rat_rob, total = 8339)
tot_rob
```
In terms of the estimated standard error, this predictor is considerably more
efficient than the (non-robust) ratio predictor. We come to the same conclusion
if we consider the approximate mean square error
```{r}
mse(tot_rob) / 1e6
```
In place of the Huber estimator, we can use the ratio *M*-estimator with Tukey
biweight (bisquare) $\psi$-function; see `svyratio_tukey()`. The ratio
estimator of the population of the mean is computed by `svymean_ratio()`.
## 3 Robust generalized regression prediction
#### 3.1 GREG
Consider the population regression model
$$
\begin{equation*}
\mathrm{RMT85}_i = \theta_0 + \mathrm{P85}_i \cdot \theta_1 +
\mathrm{SS82}_i \cdot \theta_2 + \sigma E_i, \qquad i \in U,
\end{equation*}
$$
where `CS82` is the number of Social-Democrat seats in municipal council. The
$E_i$ are independent and identically distributed random variables with zero
mean and unit variance. The parameters $\theta_0, \ldots, \theta_2$ and $\sigma
> 0$ are unknown.
The weighted LS estimate is computed by
```{r}
wls <- svyreg(RMT85 ~ P85 + SS82, dn)
wls
```
The summary method shows that variable `CS82` contributes significantly to the
explanation of the response variable.
```{R}
summary(wls)
```
The diagnostic plots (below) indicate several issues. In particular, the fitted
values are smaller than the responses (see "Response vs. Fitted values"). As a
result, the fit tends to underestimate.
```{r, out.width = "50%", fig.align = "default"}
plot(wls)
```
Letting the issues aside, we want to predict the 1985 revenues total. The
population totals of `P85` and `SS82` are known quantities (from registers) and
are passed to the function `svytotal_reg()` via the `totals` argument. Because
the model includes a regression intercept, we must also specify the population
size `N`. The total is predicted using
```{r}
tot <- svytotal_reg(wls, totals = c(P85 = 8339, SS82 = 6301), N = 284,
type = "ADU")
tot
```
where `type = "ADU"` defines the "standard" GREG predictor, which is an
asymptotically unbiased (ADU) estimator/ predictor, hence the name. By default,
the argument `check.names` is set to `TRUE` in the call of `svytotal_reg()`.
Thus, the names of arguments of `totals` are checked against the names of the
estimated regression coefficients. If the names of `totals` are not specified,
we call the function with `check.names = FALSE`. The estimated total, standard
error and variance covariance can be extracted by the functions `coef`, `SE()`,
and `vcov()`.
The (estimated) approximate mean square error (MSE; which coincides with the
estimated variance of the predictor) is
```{r}
mse(tot) / 1e6
```
The estimated total, standard error and variance covariance can be extracted by
the functions `coef`, `SE()`, and `vcov()`.
#### 3.2 Robust GREG
Consider the regression model from the last paragraph. Now, we compute a robust
GREG predictor of the 1985 revenues total. The regression *M*-estimator with
Tukey biweight (bisquare) $\psi$-function and the robustness tuning constant
$k=15$ is
```{r}
rob <- svyreg_tukeyM(RMT85 ~ P85 + SS82, dn, k = 15)
rob
```
The diagnostic plots look better than for the weighted LS estimator.
```{r, out.width = "50%", fig.align = "default"}
plot(rob)
```
The robust GREG predictor of the 1985 revenues total is
```{r}
tot <- svytotal_reg(rob, totals = c(P85 = 8339, SS82 = 6301), N = 284,
type = "huber", k = 50)
tot
```
where the prediction is based on the Huber $\psi$-function with tuning constant
$k = 50$. The tuning constant for robust prediction should in general be larger
than the one used for regression estimation. Observe that we have "mixed" the
$\psi$-functions: Regression estimation based on the Tukey biweight
$\psi$-function and prediction with the Huber $\psi$-function.
The (estimated) approximate MSE of the robust GREG predictor is
```{r}
mse(tot) / 1e6
```
which is considerably smaller than the MSE of the "standard" GREG. The
estimated total, standard error and variance covariance can be extracted by the
functions `coef`, `SE()`, and `vcov()`.
See the help file of `svymean_reg()` or `svytotal_reg()` to learn more.
## References {#biblio}
LUMLEY, T. (2010). *Complex Surveys: A Guide to Analysis Using R: A Guide to
Analysis Using R*, Hoboken (NJ): John Wiley & Sons.
LUMLEY, T. (2021). survey: analysis of complex survey samples. R package
version 4.0, URL https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=survey.
SÄRNDAL, C.-E., SWENSSON, B. AND WRETMAN, J. (1992). *Model Assisted Survey
Sampling*. New York: Springer-Verlag.
TILLE, Y. (2006). *Sampling Algorithms*. New York: Springer-Verlag.